Forecasting the voluntary carbon market (March 2025)

AlliedOffsets introduces a forecasting model for the VCM, simulating credit demand under various market conditions through 2030. Scenarios reflect divergent buyer behavior, regulatory signals, and investor sentiment. The baseline scenario projects steady growth in retirements, while an optimistic scenario sees near 1 GtCO₂e retired annually by 2030. It identifies market levers (e.g. Scope 3 frameworks, policy alignment, pricing clarity) that could influence uptake. The model helps guide strategy for developers, buyers, and intermediaries navigating future carbon market dynamics.