Despite record investment in clean energy, the fossil fuel industry is still anticipating long-term growth in fossil fuel demand. We Mean Business Coalition brought together leading experts from Energy Transitions Commission, Ember and E3G to develop an analysis that looks at how trends in electrification and clean energy are affecting fossil fuel demand.  

This analysis, Power Up: How Clean Energy Is Putting Fossil Fuel Demand in Doubt, suggests that fossil fuel producers risk counting on future demand that may not materialize. Power Up looks at oil, gas and coal, showing that demand for each is set to slow or peak in the next few years, and reaffirms momentum in clean energy deployment globally.

Oil demand is under significant pressure as EVs scale, with no sector — including petrochemicals — capable of offsetting the lost oil demand from road transport.

EVs are currently replacing 1.3 million barrels of oil per day and set to replace 5 million barrels of oil per day by 2030. As a result, oil demand is expected to peak then decline this decade, and suppliers who produce high-cost oil will struggle to stay in business.

The role of coal in power generation is diminishing — the question now is how fast will it fall?

In the last 10 years, planned coal capacity has declined 65%. The remaining planned capacity is concentrated in just 10 countries. In places where renewables are already meeting much of the demand and dominate new installations, new coal plants risk low utilization rates an early retirement.